Bold headline first: even a market darling like Greggs can hit turbulence—profits dip as buyers tighten belts, and the debate over whether we’ve reached “peak Greggs” heats up. But here’s the part that deserves your attention: the chain’s long-term growth plan still aims to shake up the high street, even while current conditions feel stubbornly rough.
Greggs, the UK’s go-to bakery known for sausage rolls and steak bakes, reported a drop in statutory pre-tax profits of 17.9% to £167.4 million for the year ending 27 December, alongside a slower start to the new year in sales growth. The decline comes as shoppers tighten budgets amid rising living costs, higher taxes and wages, and a noticeable tilt away from discretionary treats for some consumers.
Last year, CEO Roisin Currie insisted that peak Greggs hadn’t arrived, noting the company has weathered downturns before and could rebound. This year, Greggs signaled that easing inflation could help boost consumer spending, even as grocery price pressures persist and geopolitical events threaten to push costs higher.
Despite the tougher backdrop, Greggs emphasized its resilience in a challenging market. Management pointed to an unusual heat spell that hurt foot traffic and altered customer behavior, contributing to the annual profit decline.
Currie suggested some headwinds could ease in 2026, with improved inflation dynamics potentially lifting discretionary spending and reinforcing demand for convenient hot food on the go. She told PA Media that the 2026 plan anticipates another challenging year, yet the company remains hopeful about the broader consumer environment improving.
In terms of performance, Greggs said total annual sales rose 6.8% to £2.15 billion, helped by a steady store-opening program that expanded the estate. The company finished 2025 with 2,739 shops after adding 121 net new locations, and it projects around 120 more openings in the current year, aiming to exceed 3,000 UK shops in the longer term.
Market reaction and interpretation were mixed. Some analysts see limited upside as the pace of trading slows, while others argue Greggs is laying down the foundations for future expansion. They point to menu adaptations to evolving customer preferences and a strategy to extend hours to capture more evening customers—the latter now representing a growing share of the business, with roughly three-quarters of stores open past 5pm. Additionally, delivery and evening trade have helped fuel growth despite broader pressures.
Bottom line: Greggs remains a meal-on-the-go hotspot for many, but profitability and growth hinge on how quickly inflation eases, how shoppers adjust to cost-of-living pressures, and whether the company’s aggressive expansion and longer hours translate into durable, sustainable gains. Is the strategy strong enough to weather the current headwinds, or does it rely too heavily on store numbers and late-day traffic? Share your take on whether Greggs’ path to over 3,000 UK locations is a bold move or a risky gamble.
