Get ready for an exciting awards season! As we embark on a new year, the race for Best Picture at the 2025 Academy Awards is shaping up to be a thrilling one. While surprises and upsets are always possible, the top contenders seem to be locked in a tight battle, leaving little room for unexpected twists.
Three films have consistently dominated the Best Picture predictions across various markets: "One Battle After Another," "Sinners," and "Hamnet." These three movies have emerged as the frontrunners, with many experts suggesting that the Academy might already be engraving the Oscar for the top spot.
What sets these films apart is their consistent performance throughout the awards campaign. They have reached (or come very close to) their realistic potential, with no significant bumps or missteps along the way. It's a rare occurrence to see such a strong trio of contenders, each bringing their unique strengths to the table.
Let's rewind and revisit these films' journeys so far.
Sinners: This genre-bending vampire film directed by Ryan Coogler burst onto the scene in April, becoming an international sensation. It dominated the box office for a month, with praise pouring in from all corners. Despite initial doubts, "Sinners" has proven to be a force to be reckoned with, racking up an impressive number of nominations and accolades. From the Astra Awards to the Critics' Choice Awards, the Golden Globes, and even the Grammys, "Sinners" has left its mark on every major awards show.
Hamnet: Premiering at the Telluride Film Festival in August, "Hamnet" received exceptional reviews and immediately established itself as a strong contender. Chloe Zhao, the director, found herself in the Best Picture race once again. Jessie Buckley's performance shot to the top of Best Actress predictions, and the film's buzz only grew stronger. Winning the People's Choice Award at TIFF further solidified its place as a serious contender. However, the buzz has cooled down since then, and the box office numbers weren't as kind. Still, with its critical acclaim and awards potential, "Hamnet" remains a formidable force.
One Battle After Another: Directed by Paul Thomas Anderson, this film's wide release marked a new phase in the awards season. With an impressive box office performance of over $200 million, "One Battle After Another" has topped many Best-of-2025 lists and is poised to dominate phase two of the Oscar season. It has received countless accolades and nominations, outperforming expectations. Since its release in late September, it has been the film to beat, with few challengers in its way.
The race has taken an interesting turn, with these three films taking turns at the top spot over the months. Each has reached its respective ceiling in many ways, leaving little room for error. All three could make a strong case for Best Picture in any other year, but the intense competition among themselves has created meaningful friction.
As we approach the Oscar nominations, the race feels unique in its three-way battle, with no clear underdog. Unlike last year's Oscar season, where the winner seemed inevitable, this year's competition is fierce and unpredictable.
Our top three contenders enter the Oscar nomination month with few reasons to doubt their chances. They have excelled at every important milestone this year, and their biggest competition has been each other.
The upcoming Oscar nominations will be a crucial moment. If any of these films underperform, it will be a rare occurrence, given their consistent track record. And if they all meet or exceed expectations, their Oscar wins will be even more impressive, given the strong competition.
"One Battle After Another" looks set to rival the all-time nomination record, while "Sinners" and "Hamnet" are also expected to receive double-digit nominations.
As an awards predictor, it's been a joy to witness these three films' journeys, with their ascents seemingly uninterrupted. We're in for a real treat as we witness the hard-fought and well-earned nominations and wins at the Oscars.
So, who do you think will take home the Best Picture award at the 98th Academy Awards? Share your predictions and join the discussion on our X account!
For more awards season updates, check out our upcoming dates, the latest winners, our precursor tracker, and our current Oscar predictions. You can also follow Cole and his thoughts on the Oscars and film on X @CurtissOnFilm.
